Space: the final frontier
Tianwen-1 on February 10, Al Amal, "hope" in Arabic, on February 14 and Perseverance on February 18. The month of February saw the almost simultaneous arrival of several probes in orbit and on Mars. The first, sent by China, will study the atmosphere and the topography of the red planet; the second, from the United Arab Emirates, will focus on its climate and weather; and the third, sent by NASA, will search for traces of past life on Mars.
The space race was originally the sole preserve of the Cold War superpowers, as the US and Soviet Union vied to put the first man in orbit or on the Moon. It was a way of demonstrating technological prowess and financial firepower, given the vast sums involved. In recent decades however, more and more countries have developed space programmes. We have identified 76, of which 14 have full launch capabilities. According to the OECD, public-sector investment has increased from $52bn in 2008 to $79bn in 2019 and there are now 82 countries with satellites in orbit.
Public sector investment in space took a new turn in 2018 when the Trump Administration announced plans to set up a new branch of US armed forces, the Space Command. As has often been the case with new defence projects, this initiative looks sure to spark investment in new, innovative technologies. Many of these will have peaceful, commercial applications – the Global Positioning System launched by the US Defense Department in the 1970s now powers a host of smartphone apps.
As technology has advanced, costs have declined, putting rocket launch capabilities within reach of the private sector. A few decades ago, launch rockets were expendable while only the Space Shuttle could be used again. Now, reusable rockets can handle multiple launches, greatly reducing costs. The private sector is also developing aeroplane-borne rocket launchers capable of cheaply delivering satellites into low earth orbit.
Indeed, the private sector is now muscling in on some public-sector projects. In May 2020, for example, SpaceX allowed the US to send astronauts to the International Space Station without going through Roscosmos for the first time since the shuttles were retired in 2011. This innovation has allowed NASA to make a nice saving - each shuttle seat cost $170M, Soyuz charges $90M per head while SpaceX is sending astronauts to the ISS for $55M each.
Private sector investment in space is driving innovation in many areas, from communications (the satellite Internet that SpaceX's Starlink constellation will enable) to tourism (via the personal spaceflight that Blue Origin or Virgin Galactic want to offer). The indirect effects of the investments made will benefit a very wide variety of sectors. The OECD notes that significant funds are being spent on environmental projects - for example, sustainable food production is increasingly relying on satellite imagery and geolocation for detailed forecasting, yield enhancement and productivity improvements.
Commercial space activities have grown exponentially in recent years – their revenues are now almost four times larger than public-sector expenditure. According to the Space Foundation, commercial space revenue rose 78% over the past 10 years to $350 billion today, and this growth is expected to accelerate over the next few years - we estimate that commercial space businesses will have revenues in excess of $1 trillion by 2030.
However, space revenues remain modest in global terms – the market capitalisations of US tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet each topped $1 trillion in recent months. And history is littered with examples of failed investments, such as the satellite companies which were launched in the 1990s. Moreover, it is a highly risky field, as shown by the numerous accidents that have marked the history of the conquest of space. Nevertheless, the diversity of applications and business opportunities, the technological advances and cost reductions make us confident in the long-term prospects of this sector.
Space investment has achieved lift-off thanks to rapid technological progress in satellites and rockets and the proliferation of start-up entrants which have disrupted the industry. Diversified exposure across emerging and more established players in this industry should open up a new frontier for long-term investment.
GENERAL WARNING:
Societe Generale Private Banking is the business line of the Societe Generale Group operating through its headquarters within Societe Generale S.A. and its network of [departments or separate legal entities (branches or subsidiaries)] located in the territories mentioned below, acting under the brand names "Societe Generale Private Banking", and "Kleinwort Hambros" and distributors of the present document.
This document is of an advertising nature and has no contractual value. Its content is not intended to provide an investment service, nor does it constitute investment advice or a personalised recommendation on a financial product, nor insurance advice or a personalised recommendation, nor a solicitation of any kind, nor legal, accounting or tax advice from any entity under the authority of Société Générale Private Banking.
The information contained herein is provided for information purposes only, is subject to change without notice, and is intended to provide information that may be useful in making a decision. The information on past performance that may be reproduced in no way guarantees future performance. Before subscribing to any investment service, financial product or insurance product, the potential investor (i) must read all the information contained in the detailed documentation of the service or product under consideration (prospectus, regulations, articles of association, key investor information document, term sheet, information notice, contractual terms and conditions, etc.), in particular those relating to the associated risks; and (ii) must consult his or her legal and tax advisors to assess the legal consequences and tax treatment of the product or service under consideration. The investor's private banker is also available to provide further information, to determine with the investor whether he or she is eligible for the product or service under consideration, which may be subject to conditions, and whether it meets the investor's needs. Consequently, no entity under the responsibility of Société Générale Private Banking can be held liable for any decision taken by an investor solely on the basis of the information contained in this document.
This document is confidential, intended exclusively for the person consulting it, and may not be communicated or brought to the attention of third parties, nor may it be reproduced in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the Societe Generale Private Banking entity concerned.
SPECIFIC WARNINGS BY JURISDICTION France:
Unless expressly stated otherwise, this document is published and distributed by Société Générale, a French bank authorised and supervised by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution, located at 4, place de Budapest, CS 92459, 75436 Paris Cedex 09, under the prudential supervision of the European Central Bank ("ECB") and registered with the ORIAS as an insurance intermediary under the number 07 022 R.C.S. Paris. Further details are available on request or at www.privatebanking.societegenerale.com.
Luxembourg: This document is distributed in Luxembourg by Société Générale Luxembourg, a société anonyme registered with the Luxembourg Trade and Companies Register under number B 6061 and a credit institution authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier ("CSSF"), under the prudential supervision of the European Central Bank ("ECB"), and having its registered office at 11, avenue Emile Reuter - L 2420 Luxembourg Further details are available on request or at www.societegenerale.lu. No investment decision of any kind should be taken on the basis of this document alone. Société Générale Luxembourg accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or otherwise of the information contained in this document. Societe Generale Luxembourg accepts no responsibility for any actions taken by the recipient of this document solely on the basis of this document, and Societe Generale Luxembourg does not represent itself as providing any advice, in particular with respect to investment services. The opinions, views and forecasts expressed in this document (including its annexes) reflect the personal views of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of any other person or Société Générale Luxembourg, unless otherwise stated. This document has been prepared by Société Générale. The CSSF has not carried out any analysis, verification or control on the content of this document.
Monaco: This document is distributed in Monaco by Société Générale Private Banking (Monaco) S.A.M., located at 11 avenue de Grande Bretagne, 98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco, regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and the Commission de Contrôle des Activités Financières. Financial products marketed in Monaco may be reserved for qualified investors in accordance with the provisions of Law n & 1.339 of 07/09/2007 and Sovereign Order n.1.285 of 10/09/2007. Further details are available on request or on www.privatebanking.societegenerale.com.
Switzerland: This document is distributed in Switzerland by SOCIETE GENERALE Private Banking (Suisse) SA ("SGPBS"), whose registered office is at rue du Rhône 8, CH-1204 Geneva. SGPBS is a bank authorised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority ("FINMA"). Collective investments and structured products may only be offered in accordance with the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes (Collective Investment Schemes Act, CISA) of 23 June 2006 and the Guidelines of the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) on Information for Investors in Structured Products. Further details are available on request from SGPBS or at www.privatebanking.societegenerale.com.
This document is distributed by the following entities of the Kleinwort Hambros Group under the name Kleinwort Hambros:
United Kingdom: SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. The company's registration number is 119250, it is registered in England and Wales under number 964058 and its registered office is at 5th Floor, 8 St. James's Square, London SW1Y 400.If you no longer wish to receive this document, please contact your private banker or contact us on +44 (0) 207 597 3000. Telephone calls may be recorded or monitored.
Channel Islands: SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank (CI) Limited is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission ("JFSC") for banking, investment, money services and fund services activities. The company is incorporated in Jersey under number 2693, and its registered office is at PO Box 78, SG Hambros House, 18 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8PR. SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank (CI) Limited - Guernsey Branch is also regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission ("GFSC") for banking, investment and money services. Its address is PO Box 6, Hambros House, St Julian's Avenue, St Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 3AE. The company (including the branch) is also authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") in respect of regulated mortgage transactions in the UK. This document has not been authorised or reviewed by the JFSC, GFSC or FCA.
Gibraltar: SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank (Gibraltar) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission for its banking, investment and insurance mediation business. The company is registered in Gibraltar under number 01294 and its registered office is at Hambros House, 32 Line Wall Road, Gibraltar. Kleinwort Hambros is part of the Societe Generale Private Banking business line dedicated to private banking of the Societe Generale Group. Societe Generale is a French bank authorised in France by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution, located at 4, place de Budapest, CS 92459, 75436 Paris Cedex 09, under the prudential supervision of the European Central Bank (ECB). It is also authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and supervised by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Further information on SGPB Hambros Group, including additional legal and regulatory information, is available at www.kleinworthambros.com